Nigeria 2019 General Election Dynamics

Those people who think the opposition party will win the Nigeria 2019 Presidential election simply believe the 2015 scenario will repeat itself. But that is not likely to happen because the dynamics of the 2015 elections will be quite different from that of the 2019 elections.

The major factors that affected the 2015 elections are:

1. Region/Tribe - The North has more voting power and they felt it is their turn to produce the President hence the block vote APC got from there. The South West is next in line with respect to voting power and they also largely supported APC because of their VP slot.
2. Religion which was part of the few things that heightened the political atmosphere at the time.
3. Personality: APC candidate was presented as a man of integrity while his opponent (the incumbent President) was perceived as being corrupt.

Fast forward to 2019! The major factors that will shape the outcome of the 2019 election are:

1. Personality- This will mainly center on past records of the candidates most especially with respect to integrity. And this will favour Buhari. 
2. Political Party- This will center on the popularity, Structures and Resources of the parties. And this will favour APC.
3. Region- Majoritu of Northern votes are likely going Buhari/APC just like South Western votes but majority of Southeast and South-south votes will go to Atiku/PDP. And you know the implications of these, right?
4. Performance- PDP which already spent 16 years in power with little to show for it will lack moral right to criticize APC for not developing Nigeria in 4 years.

So, you can tell where the pendulum will swing as the Nigerian 2019 general elections get to its last days.


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